Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round. They’re just 2-4 in Quad 1 games for NCAA Tournament selection this year, and split their season series with St. The Billikens of Saint Louis are No. 2 via the odds, and No. 4 per the seeds. SLU was just 3-3 between Quad 1 and Quad 2 this season, with a record of 13-5, 6-4 in the A-10.
Earning a top seed in the NCAA Tournament is a huge advantage. In fact, number one seeds are almost 4 times more likely to win the championship than the next-best seed. Going back to the start of the modern bracket era, we have used the results of each round in the tournament so far to calculate the odds of each seed making it to each round.
This should be of good use when filling out your bracket. Below you will find the probabilities for each seed to advance to that round based on historical win percentages. So, 85% of number three seeds make it to the second round, but just over 11% make the Final Four, or about one every 2 years.
The final column is tabled “True Odds”. These would be the fair odds for each seed to win the NCAA Tournament based on historical results. In other words, these are the implied probabilities that one of the four teams at that seed wins the National Championship. There are many other factors that go into making truly expert bracket picks, but this is a good place to start, especially to guide you through later rounds.
Odds to Advance to Each Round of the Tourney by Bracket Seed
| Seed | 2nd Round | Sweet 16 | Elite 8 | Final Four | Champ Game | Win Champ | True Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 99.3% | 85.7% | 69.3% | 40.7% | 24.3% | 15.7% | 62.9% |
| 2 | 94.3% | 63.6% | 45.7% | 20.7% | 9.3% | 3.6% | 14.3% |
| 3 | 85.0% | 52.9% | 25.7% | 12.1% | 7.9% | 2.9% | 11.4% |
| 4 | 79.3% | 47.1% | 15.0% | 9.3% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 64.3% | 33.6% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 2.1% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 6 | 62.9% | 30.0% | 10.0% | 2.1% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 7 | 60.7% | 19.3% | 7.1% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 8 | 48.6% | 9.3% | 5.7% | 3.6% | 2.1% | 0.7% | 2.9% |
| 9 | 51.4% | 5.0% | 2.9% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 10 | 39.3% | 16.4% | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 11 | 37.1% | 15.7% | 5.7% | 2.9% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 12 | 35.7% | 15.0% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 13 | 20.7% | 4.3% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 14 | 15.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 15 | 5.7% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 16 | 0.7% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
Tournament Win/Loss Statistics by Seeding
While those numbers give us a broad look at the probabilities for teams at different positions in the tournament, it may also help to know the exact results for each seed. You’ll find the records and win percentages in every bracket since 1985 in the tables below. These differ from the table above in that they show how each team does in each round once they have reached it.
- Gonzaga is currently listed as the +275 favorite (Bet $100 to win $275) to capture the championship at BetMGM. Also in the top three mix is Baylor at +300 odds, and Michigan at +400 odds. Rounding out the top five contenders to win the 2021 NCAA Tournament are the Illinois Fighting Illini at +1100 and another Big Ten school in the Iowa Hawkeyes.
- In mid-February, college basketball odds certainly changed as Baylor passed Gonzaga to top the charts as the favorite to win the NCAA Tournament. As of February 18th, Baylor’s odds rose to +250 to win, while Gonzaga was a close second at +275. Michigan was a tad behind in third at +650, which make the top three a race to the top.
First Round
The opening slate is unsurprisingly the most predictable. At seeds 1-4 we can advance teams in our bracket without much worry of an upset. The only real surprise is that 12 seeds perform as well against 5 seeds as 11s do against 6 seeds. 2018 marked the first time in history a #1 upset a #16, kudos to you if you picked UMBC over Virginia! The odds are this won’t happen again for a long time. You are better off assuming all #1 seeds are going to advance past this round.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 1 | 99% |
| 2 | 132 | 8 | 94% |
| 3 | 119 | 21 | 85% |
| 4 | 111 | 29 | 79% |
| 5 | 90 | 50 | 64% |
| 6 | 88 | 52 | 63% |
| 7 | 85 | 55 | 61% |
| 8 | 68 | 72 | 49% |
| 9 | 72 | 68 | 51% |
| 10 | 55 | 85 | 39% |
| 11 | 52 | 88 | 37% |
| 12 | 50 | 90 | 36% |
| 13 | 29 | 111 | 21% |
| 14 | 21 | 119 | 15% |
| 15 | 8 | 132 | 6% |
| 16 | 1 | 139 | 1% |
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament Championship
Second Round
The second round is where you start to find a lot of variation versus what you would expect based strictly on seeding. Number nine seeds have been terrible in their second game, while ten seeds win their second round games over 40% of the time. Top ranked teams at this point in the tournament are still a safe bet with a #1 being upset only once every 3-4 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 120 | 19 | 86% |
| 2 | 89 | 43 | 67% |
| 3 | 74 | 45 | 62% |
| 4 | 66 | 45 | 59% |
| 5 | 47 | 43 | 52% |
| 6 | 42 | 46 | 48% |
| 7 | 27 | 58 | 32% |
| 8 | 13 | 55 | 19% |
| 9 | 7 | 65 | 10% |
| 10 | 23 | 32 | 42% |
| 11 | 22 | 30 | 42% |
| 12 | 21 | 29 | 42% |
| 13 | 6 | 23 | 21% |
| 14 | 2 | 19 | 10% |
| 15 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 16 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
Sweet 16
The Sweet 16 is where the better ranked teams really start to settle in. If you are a 1-3 seed that has made it this far, chances are you are going to advance. One interesting note here is that 8 seeds that have made it this far are more likely to advance than 3-7 seed. The trick, of course, is picking which 8 seed is going to advance. A #8 has been in this situation in just 37% of the brackets in the last 35 years.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 97 | 23 | 81% |
| 2 | 64 | 25 | 72% |
| 3 | 36 | 38 | 49% |
| 4 | 21 | 45 | 32% |
| 5 | 9 | 38 | 19% |
| 6 | 14 | 28 | 33% |
| 7 | 10 | 17 | 37% |
| 8 | 8 | 5 | 62% |
| 9 | 4 | 3 | 57% |
| 10 | 8 | 15 | 35% |
| 11 | 8 | 14 | 36% |
| 12 | 1 | 20 | 5% |
| 13 | 0 | 6 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 2 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Elite 8
This round appears to be the biggest equalizer. Teams who reach this point in the tournament are obviously talented and have either had an easy bracket thus far or have overcome some obstacles. This makes the Elite 8 ripe for upsets.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 57 | 40 | 59% |
| 2 | 29 | 35 | 45% |
| 3 | 17 | 19 | 47% |
| 4 | 13 | 8 | 62% |
| 5 | 7 | 2 | 78% |
| 6 | 3 | 11 | 21% |
| 7 | 3 | 7 | 30% |
| 8 | 5 | 3 | 63% |
| 9 | 1 | 3 | 25% |
| 10 | 1 | 7 | 13% |
| 11 | 4 | 4 | 50% |
| 12 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Final Four
Similar to the Elite 8, teams who make it this far, regardless of seed, are going to be a tough out. All this means is that if you select a non-number-one to make the Final Four, you shouldn’t feel obligated to pick them to lose at this point.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 34 | 23 | 60% |
| 2 | 13 | 16 | 45% |
| 3 | 11 | 6 | 65% |
| 4 | 3 | 10 | 23% |
| 5 | 3 | 4 | 43% |
| 6 | 2 | 1 | 67% |
| 7 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 8 | 3 | 2 | 60% |
| 9 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 4 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
Championship Game
No surprise here that #1s win the Championship more often than any other, especially considering seven championship games have featured two number one teams. No team seeded higher than 8th has reached the title game as of yet, but at some point one would have to assume a 9 or 10 can break through.
| Seed | Wins | Losses | Win % |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 22 | 12 | 65% |
| 2 | 5 | 8 | 38% |
| 3 | 4 | 7 | 36% |
| 4 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 5 | 0 | 3 | 0% |
| 6 | 1 | 1 | 50% |
| 7 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| 8 | 1 | 2 | 33% |
| 9 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 10 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 11 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 12 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 13 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 14 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 15 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
| 16 | 0 | 0 | 0% |
One could make the case that the entire 2021 NCAA men’s basketball tournament will take place in the “Midwest Region.”
Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, all March Madness games this year will be played in the state of Indiana. Of course, Indiana is the epicenter of Midwest basketball.
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2020
Nonetheless, the Big Dance will be broken down into four regions per usual. Here we will look at the 2021 Midwest field, odds for region, and the region’s history.
2021 NCAA Tournament: Midwest Region Bracket odds
Midwest Region bracket odds will be posted soon at top US sportsbooks. If you’re itching for futures beforehand, check out the NCAA title odds below. Hover over the price(s) you like and click to place a wager.
To view more college hoops futures and game lines, go to DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook and/or PointsBet.
Odds To Win Region Ncaa Tournament 2019
Midwest Region: What happened last time?
Auburn, the 5 seed, emerged as the Midwest Region champ in 2019, beating Kentucky 77-71 in OT in the Regional Final. What the Tigers accomplished two years ago was mighty impressive considering they had to topple traditional college basketball powers like Kansas, North Carolina and Kentucky along the way. The Jayhawks, Tar Heels and Wildcats all had better seeds than Auburn.
The Tigers’ journey ended on Final Four Saturday as they were edged by eventual National Champion Virginia, 63-62. As far as upsets in the Midwest in 2019, No. 11 Ohio State pulled off the biggest stunner – knocking off No. 6 Iowa State in the first round. No. 9 Washington also beat No. 8 Utah State.
The 2019 Regional semi-finals and final was played in Kansas City.
Midwest Region history: First round upsets
Call this the “feast or famine region” when it comes to upsets. In 2015, for instance, the region did not have a single first round upset. The next year, 2016, a 15 knocked off a 2 seed, a 12 beat a 5, an 11 toppled a 6, a 10 beat a 7 and a 9 upended an 8.
Middle Tennessee was the 15 seed in the Midwest in that crazy tournament five years ago. They toppled No. 2 seed Michigan State.
In the past 21 years, there have also been two 14 seeds that have shocked the world. Mercer took down No. 3 seeded Duke in 2014 and No. 14 Ohio upset No. 3 Georgetown in 2010. The Midwest region has been kind to Ohio as two years after the Bobcats beat the Hoyas, they knocked off Michigan as a 13 seed.
Here is a list of upsets in the Midwest since 2000:
- 2019: No. 11 Ohio State over Iowa State, No. 9 Washington over No. 8 Utah State
- 2018: No. 11 Syracuse over No. 6 TCU
- 2017: No. 11 Rhode Island over No. 6 Creighton, No. 9 Michigan State over No. 8 Miami
- 2016: No. 15 Middle Tennessee over No. 2 Michigan State, No. 12 Little Rock over No. 5 Purdue, No. 11 Gonzaga over No. 6 Seton Hall, No. 10 Syracuse over No. 7 Dayton, No. 9 Butler over No. 8 Texas Tech
- 2015: None
- 2014: No. 14 Mercer over No. 3 Duke, No. 11 Tennessee over No. 6 UMass
- 2013: No. 12 Oregon over No. 5 Oklahoma State
- 2012: No. 13 Ohio over No. 4 Michigan, No. 12 South Florida over No. 5 Temple, No. 11 North Carolina State over No. 6 San Diego State, No. 10 Purdue over Saint Mary’s
- 2011*: N/A
- 2010: No. 14 Ohio over No. 3 Georgetown, No. 10 Georgia Tech over No. 7 Oklahoma State, No. 9 Northern Iowa over No. 8 UNLV
- 2009: No. 13 Cleveland State over No. 4 Wake Forest, No. 12 Arizona over No. 5 Utah, No. 11 Dayton over No. 6 West Virginia, No. 10 USC over No. 7 Boston College, No. 9 Siena over No. 8 Ohio State
- 2008: No. 13 Siena over No. 4 Vanderbilt, No. 12 Villanova over No. 5 Clemson, No. 11 Kansas State over No. 6 USC, No. 10 Davidson over No. 7 Gonzaga
- 2007: No. 11 Winthrop over No. 6 Notre Dame, No. 9 Purdue over No. 8 Arizona
- 2006: No. 12 Montana over No. 5 Nevada, No. 11 UW-Milwaukee over No. 6 Oklahoma
- 2005: No. 12 UW-Milwaukee over No. 5 Alabama, No. 11 UAB over No. 6 LSU, No. 9 Nevada over No. 8 Texas
- 2004: No. 12 Pacific over No. 5 Providence, No. 10 Nevada over No. 7 Michigan State, No. 9 UAB over No. 8 Washington
- 2003: No. 13 Tulsa over No. 4 Dayton, No. 9 Utah over No. 8 Oregon
- 2002: No. 12 Creighton over No. 5 Florida
- 2001: No. 10 Butler over No. 7 Wake Forest, No. 9 Charlotte over No. 8 Tennessee
- 2000: None
*In 2011, the NCAA Div. 1 men’s basketball tournament did not feature a traditional Midwest Region. It instead had an East, West, Southeast and Southwest Region.
NCAA Champions from the Midwest Region
There have been eight NCAA champions from the Midwest Region since 1990, tied for the second most. The South Region has produced nine title teams and the East Region has also had eight teams win it all in that time.
It has been a while since the NCAA champ came from the Midwest. You’d have to go back to 2013 when Louisville won it all.
The “glory years” for the region came in the 2000s when teams from the Midwest won three titles in a row. The Florida Gators won in 2006 and 2007, and then Kansas cut the nets in 2008.
Here is a list of March Madness champions by region and seed going back to 1990:
| Year | NCAA Champion | Region | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 | *Tournament canceled due to COVID-19 pandemic | N/A | N/A |
| 2019 | Virginia | South | 1 |
| 2018 | Villanova | East | 1 |
| 2017 | North Carolina | South | 1 |
| 2016 | Villanova | South | 2 |
| 2015 | Duke | South | 1 |
| 2014 | UConn | East | 7 |
| 2013 | Louisville | Midwest | 1 |
| 2012 | Kentucky | South | 1 |
| 2011 | UConn | West | 3 |
| 2010 | Duke | South | 1 |
| 2009 | North Carolina | South | 1 |
| 2008 | Kansas | Midwest | 1 |
| 2007 | Florida | Midwest | 1 |
| 2006 | Florida | Midwest | 3 |
| 2005 | North Carolina | East | 1 |
| 2004 | UConn | West | 2 |
| 2003 | Syracuse | East | 3 |
| 2002 | Maryland | East | 1 |
| 2001 | Duke | East | 1 |
| 2000 | Michigan State | Midwest | 1 |
| 1999 | UConn | West | 1 |
| 1998 | Kentucky | South | 2 |
| 1997 | Arizona | South | 4 |
| 1996 | Kentucky | Midwest | 1 |
| 1995 | UCLA | West | 1 |
| 1994 | Arkansas | Midwest | 1 |
| 1993 | North Carolina | East | 1 |
| 1992 | Duke | East | 1 |
| 1991 | Duke | Midwest | 2 |
| 1990 | UNLV | West | 1 |
How the Midwest Region is selected
Seeding is the first priority for the Selection Committee each year. For instance if there are four clear-cut No. 1 seeds but two of them are from East Coast, one is from the South and the other is from the West Coast – an East Coast team might wind up as the top seed in the Midwest Region.
Typically, though – the Midwest is represented at the top of the bracket by a team geographically close to the Midwest. For instance, Kansas was the top seed in 2017 and 2018 and Wichita State was the 1 seed in 2014.